TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 28, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has closed below the recent consolidation area, suggesting that AUDUSD may start down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and price action has formed a bearish channel – confirming the potential downside.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6770 and 0.6790. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in our previous analysis, price reversed around the horizontal level at 0.8580. EURGBP has since been bearish and has swung lower. Price is down-trending within 2 separate bearish channels. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 0.8530, 0.8545 and 0.8580. EURGBP could be rejected or reverse around the channel support areas.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD reversed around the recent lows at 1.0990 (as suggested in our last chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.0990, 1.1025, 1.1040 and 1.1055.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in our last chart analysis, GBPUSD reversed around the horizontal level at 1.2820. Price has since been bullish but continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.2820, 1.2835, 1.2885, 1.2895, 1.2910 and 1.2970.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed around the range resistance area (as suggested in our last chart analysis). The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal support at 0.6395 and the horizontal resistance at 0.6435. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range ad if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal support levels at 0.6385 and 0.6365.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price has reversed off the horizontal level at 1.3265. The USDCAD is moving within a horizontal channel and also a bullish channel. The moving averages are tight and have been crossing frequently, signalling indecision.

Opportunities to go long may exist around horizontal channel support area and the bullish channel support area. A bullish move could find resistance around the horizontal channel resistance area and around the bullish channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A Canadian GDP figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has continued to be bullish (as suggested in our last chart analysis). Price is choppy but is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9985, 0.9960 and 0.9930. An attempt to swung higher may find resistance around the recent highs at 0.9995.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in our last chart analysis, the USDJPY has continued to be bullish and move higher. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 109.25, 109.10 and 108.80. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance areas at 109.45 and 109.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed around the longer-term moving average and trend resistance area (as suggested in our last chart analysis). GOLD is down-trending but may be forming a horizontal channel at 1453-1462. The moving averages confirm the potential indecision – they are starting to tighten and move sideways.

Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the trend resistance area. Trading opportunities could also exist around the support and resistance areas of the potential horizontal channel.

 

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