TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 26, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and have been crossing frequently. Price is ranging between 0.6770 and 0.6830.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

The Governor of the RBA will speak at 0905 UTC today. A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC. A Australian construction figure will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has reversed around the horizontal support level at 0.8530. The recent uptrend is now over. Price is down-trending again and has formed a bearish channel. The moving averages have crossed bearish, suggesting that the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8545, 0.8580, 0.8585 and 0.8600. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.8530 and around the channel support area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.0990, 1.1040, 1.1055 and 1.1090. If EURUSD closes below the horizontal support at 1.0990, price could attempt a bearish move lower.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the moving averages. GBPUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that price may attempt a bearish move lower.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the trend resistance area. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal support levels at 1.2820, 1.2805 and 1.2770.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD has become indecisive (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is moving sideways and has formed a horizontal channel at 0.6395-0.6435. The moving averages are moving sideways and have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the NZDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around the horizontal support levels at 0.6385, 0.6365 and 0.6320.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

The Governor of the RBNZ will speak at 2200 UTC today. A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCAD found support around the moving averages and has been bullish. Price continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3265 and 1.3205. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance and recent highs at 1.3325 and around the bullish channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has swung higher off the shorter-term moving average and continues to be bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9960, 0.9930 and 0.9915.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and move higher. USDJPY is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area, around the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 108.80 and 108.70. A bullish move may find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 109.10, 109.25 and 109.45.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been bearish and has moved lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1457, 1474, 1478 and 1481. A bearish move could find support around 1457 and 1449.

 

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