TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 25, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6775, 0.6780, 0.6820, 0.8230 and 0.6865. If the AUDUSD closes below 0.6775, price may attempt a bearish move lower.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price moved above the range resistance area and has since moved higher. EURGBP is up-trending and has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.8545 and 0.8530. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8580, 0.8585, 0.8600 and 0.8630.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD found support around 1.1015 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price continues to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0990, 1.1015, 1.1040, 1.1055 and 1.1090.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, GBPUSD has reversed around the horizontal support at 1.2820. Price action has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows – GBPUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2885 and 1.2895. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2820, 1.2805 and 1.2770.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed off the bullish channel support and the horizontal level at 0.6400 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD continues to be choppy but move within a bullish channel. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Long opportunities could exist around the channel support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6400, 0.6385 and 0.6365. A bullish move may find resistance around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6435 and 0.6465.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the horizontal level at 1.3265. The USDCAD is up-trending within a bullish channel and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, suggesting that buying momentum could be weakening – an attempt to swing higher could fail.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3265 and 1.3200. A bullish move could find resistance around 1.3325 and the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and has swung higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

If price retraces, buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9960 and 0.9930. USDCHF may continue to find resistance around 0.9980.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around 108.70 but has since swung higher. The USDJPY has swung above the recent bullish channel resistance area and the moving averages have crossed bullish, all suggesting that price may start up-trending.

Long opportunities could exist around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support), around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 108.80 and 108.70. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 109.05, 109.25 and 109.45.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been bearish. Price has moved below the bullish channel support area, suggesting that the recent uptrend could be over. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they have crossed bearish and are widening.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area, around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal levels at 1474 and 1478. A bearish move could find support around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1457 and 1449.

 

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