TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 22, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the moving averages. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6775, 0.6790, 0.6820, 0.6830 and 0.6865. If the AUDUSD closes below the recent lows at 0.6775, price could attempt a bearish move lower.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

US manufacturing PMI will be released at 1445 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has reversed around 0.8580 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. EURGBP is ranging between 0.8545 and 0.8580.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may stall or reverse around the previous bearish channel resistance area and around the recent lows at 0.8530. A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8585, 0.8600 and 0.8630.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

European services and manufacturing PMI figures will be released at 0815, 0830 and 0900 UTC today. UK services and manufacturing PMI figures will be released at 0930 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed of the horizontal resistance at 1.1090 and has since been finding support around 1.1055. EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Price is moving within a horizontal channel at 1.1055-1.1090.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1.1040, 1.1015 and 1.0990. A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.1130 and 1.1175.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

European services and manufacturing PMI figures will be released at 0815, 0830 and 0900 UTC today. US manufacturing PMI will be released at 1445 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. GBPUSD is below the recent bullish channel support area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all suggesting that the recent uptrend is over.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance), around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 1.2885. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.2820 and 1.2805.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

UK services and manufacturing PMI figures will be released at 0930 UTC. US manufacturing PMI will be released at 1445 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, NZDUSD has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.6400. Price is struggling to swung higher and is currently ranging between 06400 and 0.6435. The moving averages confirm the lack of upside momentum – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the NZDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). Opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area. If price breaks to the upside, NZDUSD could find resistance around the bullish channel resistance area and around the recent highs at 0.6465. If price breaks to the downside, NZDUSD could find support around the horizontal support levels at 0.6385 and 0.6365.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

US manufacturing PMI will be released at 1445 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDCAD has started retracing and has been finding support around the horizontal level at 1.3265 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and USDCAD is moving in a bullish channel, signalling that price may attempt to swing higher.

Long opportunities could exist around the horizontal level at 1.3265, around the longer-term moving average and around the channel support area. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average, around the recent swing high at 1.3325 and the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A Canadian retail sales figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. US manufacturing PMI will be released at 1445 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and has swung higher. The USDCHF has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all suggesting that price could start up-trending.

Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9930, 0.9915 and 0.9895. A bullish move could find resistance around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9960 and 0.9975.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

US manufacturing PMI will be released at 1445 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal level at 108.70. USDJPY continues to be choppy and indecisive but also move within a large bearish channel. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 108.70, 108.80 and 109.05. A bearish move may find support around the horizontal support at 108.25 and the channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

US manufacturing PMI will be released at 1445 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has reversed around the bullish channel support area. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways though – signalling market indecision.

Buying opportunities may exist around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1457 and 1449. An attempt to swing higher could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1474, 1478 and 1481.

 

Start trading today with Triumph’s Forex MT4 trading platform – https://www.tfxi.com/