TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 21, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the bullish channel support area. AUDUSD has since been bearish though and has moved below the channel support area. Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6775, 0.6790, 0.6820, 0.6830 and 0.6865.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price was finding support around the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but has since been bearish. EURGBP is now looking indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support) and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8530, 0.8570, 0.8580, 0.8585 and 0.8600.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

The ECB will release monetary policy meeting accounts at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has been reversing off the horizontal resistance at 1.1085. Price is indecisive and is moving sideways. The moving averages are also moving sideways and are tightening – confirming the current indecision. EURUSD has formed a horizontal channel at 1.1055-1.1085.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around 1.1090 and 1.1130. A break to the downside may stall or reverse around 1.1040 and 1.1020.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

The ECB will release monetary policy meeting accounts at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD has reversed off the bullish channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending in a bullish channel. GBPUSD is above the moving averages, signalling that price could attempt to swing higher. The moving averages have crossed bearish though, suggesting a lack of upside momentum.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal level at 1.2885. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.2970 and the channel resistance area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the bullish channel support area and has since been bullish. The NZDUSD is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6415, 0.6400 and 0.6385. A bullish move may find resistance around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6430 and 0.6465.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has stalled at the bullish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is up-trending and is currently at the start of a retrace phase. Price is moving within a large bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside direction could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous swing high at 1.3265 and around the channel support area. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the recent swing high at 1.3325.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

The Governor of the BOC will speak at 1320 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has reversed around 0.9930. Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price action has formed a short series of higher swing highs, signalling that the USDCHF may attempt a bullish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9850, 0.9875, 0.9915, 0.9930 and 0.9960.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDJPY reversed around 108.65 and has been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive but also move in a bearish channel. The moving averages confirm the analysis – they are bearish but have been crossing frequently.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 108.65, 108.80, 109.05 and 109.25. A bearish move could find support around 108.25 and around the channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

US FOMC is scheduled for 1900 UTC today.

 

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