TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 20, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has become bullish and has swing higher. Price action has formed a bullish channel, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. The moving averages are moving sideways though, suggesting market indecision.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6790 ad 0.6775. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6820, 0.6830 and 0.6865.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

US FOMC is scheduled for 1900 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has been bullish. Price has swung above the moving averages and bearish channel resistance, all suggesting that the EURGBP may start up-trending. The moving averages confirm the lack of downside strength – they are becoming bullish.

Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8570 and 0.8530. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8585, 0.8600 and 0.8630.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the 50.0% Fib level. EURUSD is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are starting to tight and move sideways – confirming the indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.0990, 1.1015, 1.1040, 1.1085, 1.1090 and 1.1130.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

US FOMC is scheduled for 1900 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price reversed around 1.2970 and has since been finding support around the bullish channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GBPUSD is up-trending in a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the channel support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.2885. A bullish move may find resistance around the shorter-term moving average, around the horizontal resistance at 1.2970 and the channel resistance area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

US FOMC is scheduled for 1900 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD has been bullish. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the upside momentum could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6410, 0.6385 and 0.6365. A bullish move could find resistance around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6430 and 0.6465.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

US FOMC is scheduled for 1900 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCAD found support around 1.3195. Price has since been bullish and has swung higher. Price action is forming higher swing highs and lows and a bullish channel – USDCAD is up-trending. The moving averages are becoming bullish, signalling that the upside momentum may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3265 and 1.3200. A bullish move may find resistance around the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A Canadian CPI figure will be released at 1300 UTC today. US FOMC is scheduled for 1900 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9850, 0.9875, 0.9915, 0.9930 and 0.9960.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

US FOMC is scheduled for 1900 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has moved lower. The USDJPY is choppy but is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the downward direction may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 108.65, 108.80 and 109.05. A bearish move may find support around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 108.25 and 107.95.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

US FOMC is scheduled for 1900 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD reversed around the moving averages and has been bullish. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1474, 1457 and 1449. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1481, 1486 and 1493.

 

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