TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 19, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways, suggesting market indecision – AUDUSD may struggle to swing lower and may become bullish.

Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6820 and 0.6865. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.6775.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average. EURGBP is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8570 and 0.8585. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent lows at 0.8530 and around the channel support area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD has been finding resistance around the 50.0% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be bullish and retrace the recent bearish move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the EURUSD may struggle to swing lower.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.1090 and 1.1130. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1040 and 1.1015.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GBPUSD has been bullish and has been finding resistance around 1.2970. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.2885. A bullish move could find resistance around the horizontal resistance at 1.2970 and the channel resistance area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6320, 0.6365, 0.6410, 0.6415, 0.6430 and 0.6465.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the shorter-term moving average. USDCAD had been up-trending but recent price action has been bearish. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3220 and 1.3265. A bearish move could find support around the horizontal levels at 1.3195, 1.3160 and 1.3115.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has reversed off 0.9875 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has become indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the indecision. The USDCHF is currently ranging between the horizontal support at 0.9875 and the recent swing high at 0.9915.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around 0.9930 and 0.9960. A break to the downside may stall or reverse around 0.9850.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDJPY continues to be choppy but is moving in a bearish channel, suggesting that price could move lower. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 108.65, 109.05 and 109.25. A bearish move could find support around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 108.25 and 107.95.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around 1474. GOLD has forming a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish, signalling that price may attempt a bullish move.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1457 and 1449. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1474, 1481, 1486 and 1493.

 

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