TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 14, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower. The AUDUSD has swung below bearish channel support and the moving averages continue to be bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous bearish channel support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6815, 0.6835 and 0.6865.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price reversed around the previous horizontal support at 0.8590 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP continues to be choppy but is also moving in a general downward direction. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the bearish momentum may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8590, 0.8600 and 0.8630. Price may continue to find support around 0.8560.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

A UK retail sales figure will be released at 0930 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD continues to be bearish and move lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

If the EURUSD starts retracing, selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.1015, 1.1040 and 1.1060.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD is indecisive. Price is moving sideways and ranging between the horizontal support at 1.2820 and the horizontal resistance at 1.2860. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1.2805 and 1.2770. A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.2885.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A UK retail sales figure will be released at 0930 UTC. A US PPI figure will be announced at 1330 UTC. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price is indecisive. The moving averages have crossed bullish though and are widening, suggesting that NZDUSD could attempt a bullish move.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6390 and 0.6370. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around 0.6425 and 0.6465.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has swung higher. USDCAD is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3215 and 1.3195. Price may stall or reverse around the recent highs and resistance at 1.3265.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF has been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be choppy but recent price action has been bearish. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9915 and 0.9930. A strong bearish move could reverse around 0.9850.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDJPY has been finding support around 108.65. Price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and highs and the moving averages are bearish, all signalling that USDJPY may start down-trending.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 108.90 and 109.25. Price may reverse off the current support area at 108.65. A bearish move down may find support around 108.50.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tightening and GOLD has swung above the moving averages, suggesting that price could struggle to swing lower – the downtrend could becoming to an end.

Selling opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1472, 1481 and 1486. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the recent lows at 1449.

 

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