TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 12, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bearish and has been reversing off the channel support area and the shorter-term moving average. Price is down-trending in a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6865 and 0.6875. A bearish move may find support around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6835 and 0.6815.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

An Australian wage price index figure will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has swung lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be choppy but has slight downside direction. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that the downside momentum could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8600, 0.8630 and 0.8645.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8600, 0.8630 and 0.8645. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.8585 and 0.8565.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has found support around the recent lows at 1.1015. EURUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.1040, 1.1060, 1.1075 and 1.1090. Price may start ranging between 1.1015 and 1.1040.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and has swung above the recent bearish channel resistance area and the moving averages, suggesting that the recent downtrend is now over. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways, signalling market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 1.2770, 1.2805, 1.2845 and 1.2885.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Price is currently ranging between the recent lows at 0.6320 and the recent swing high at 0.6370. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that NZDUSD may attempt a move lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may be rejected or reverse around 0.6385/90.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

The RBNZ will release a rate statement and announce rates at 0100 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 0200 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCAD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has swung higher. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3230, 1.3215 and 1.3195.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. The USDCHF is below the recent bullish channel and the moving averages are moving sideways, signalling market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9915, 0.9930, 0.9965 and 0.9975.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish. The USDJPY has formed a bullish channel, suggesting that price could start up-trending. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways though, signalling market indecision.

Long opportunities may exist the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 108.95 and 108.65. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 109.25 and 109.45.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD continues to be bearish and move lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1472 and 1481. A bearish move may find support around 1448.50.

 

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