TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 11, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower. AUDUSD is down-trending. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6865, 0.6875 and 0.6905. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.6850 and the channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price has reversed around 0.8600 (as suggested in our last chart analysis). EURGBP continues to be choppy and indecisive but is moving within a bearish channel. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the channel and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8665, 0.8645, 0.8630, 0.8600, 0.8685 and 0.8580.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in our last chart analysis, the EURUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is now retracing. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the EURUSD could attempt a move lower.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.1060, 1.1075, 1.1090 and 1.1105.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD was bearish and swung lower (as suggested in our last chart analysis). Price is now retracing some of the recent bearish move. GBPUSD is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal level at 1.2845. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2810 and 1.2770.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is retracing some of the recent bearish move. The NZDUSD has swung above both moving averages, suggesting that price could struggle to swing lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6320, 0.6335, 0.6345 and 0.6390.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A New Zealand inflation expectations figure will be released at 0100 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher. The USDCAD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3195 and 1.3160. Price may continue to find resistance around 1.3230.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF was bullish and swung higher (as suggested in our last chart analysis). Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady and price action has formed a bullish channel, all suggesting that that the upside direction could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9935 and 0.9915. A bullish move could find resistance around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9965 and 0.9975.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, USDJPY has reversed off the recent highs at 109.45. Price has since been bearish and is below both moving averages. The moving averages are tightening and starting to move sideways, signalling market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 108.30, 108.65, 109.25 and 109.45.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has formed a swing lower (as suggested in our last chart analysis). GOLD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1472, 1481 and 1486. A bearish move could find support around 1458.

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