TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 07, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD found support around the horizontal channel support area. Price has since been bearish and has moved below the channel. The AUDUSD is below the recent channel and the moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that price could start down-trending.

Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6875 and 0.6925. A bearish move could stall or reverse around 0.6815.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average and previous support at 0.8615 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is looking very choppy and indecisive but has slight downside direction. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and widening.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8615, 0.8645, 0.8665 and 0.8675. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal support levels at 0.8600 and 0.8580.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

The EU will release economic forecasts at 1000 UTC today. The BOE will release a monetary policy summary and report and announce the official bank rate at 1200 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1230 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower. EURUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1075, 1.1090, 1.1105 and 1.1130.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

The EU will release economic forecasts at 1000 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish but continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.2770, 1.2810, 1.2940, 1.2970 and 1.3000.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

The BOE will release a monetary policy summary and report and announce the official bank rate at 1200 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1230 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6335, 0.6390, 0.6430 and 0.6465.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDCAD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.3115 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3195.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDCAD closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that USDCHF could attempt a bullish move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9840, 0.9850 and 0.9965.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the longer-term moving average and horizontal level at 108.70. The USDJPY continues to be indecisive but is showing signs of potential upside.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 108.70 and 108.30. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 109.00 and 109.25.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1481, 1486, 1493 and 1496.

 

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