TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 05, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price action has formed a potential horizontal channel at 0.6875-0.6825 and also a potential bearish channel.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channels and if AUDUSD moves out of either channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 0.6815 and 0.6785.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP continues to consolidate and move sideways. Price action has formed a large horizontal channel at 0.8580-0.8685 and a symmetrical triangle. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of either consolidation pattern and if the EURGBP closes out of either pattern (break-out trade).

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to range between the horizontal support at 1.1075 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1175. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Just like other USD pairs, the GBPUSD is indecisive – price is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2705, 1.2770, 1.2810, 1.2970 and 1.3000.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD is up-trending and has recently reversed off the trend support area. The moving averages are bullish, suggesting that the uptrend could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area and the horizontal levels at 0.6385, 0.6370 and 0.6335. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6430 and 0.6465.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today. New Zealand employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 2145 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDCAD is indecisive (just like most other USD pairs). The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.3050, 1.3080, 1.3115, 1.3130, 1.3185 and 1.3235.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A Canadian trade balance figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price is indecisive and lacking trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9840, 0.9850 and 0.9965.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY has been bullish but continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the indecision. Price action has formed a potential bearish channel, signalling that the USDJPY may attempt a bearish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 108.30, 108.70, 108.85 and 109.00.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has reversed off the horizontal resistance at 1514. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1483, 1496 and 1514.

 

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