TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 31, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD moved above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. Price is above the recent consolidation and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the AUDUSD may start up-trending again.

Opportunities to go long could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous consolidation resistance at 0.6880.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP continues to move sideways and be indecisive. Price is moving within a horizontal channel at 0.8580-0.8685. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the EURGBP moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the horizontal resistance at 0.8790.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around 1.1170. EURUSD has been bullish but price is ranging between 1.1070 and 1.1170. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that EURUSD may attempt a bullish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range. Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages, if price closes above the range resistance and around the horizontal levels at 1.1155, 1.1120 and 1.1105.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is currently finding resistance around the range resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GBPUSD is indecisive and is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.2805 and the horizontal resistance at 1.2940. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.3000. A break to the downside could find support around 1.2690 and 1.2545.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The NZDUSD has been bullish. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, suggesting that the upside direction may continue. NZDUSD may start ranging between 0.6335 and 0.6430.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6385, 0.6370 and 0.6340. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6425 and 0.6430.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has reversed around 1.3180. Price action is forming a higher swing high and the moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the USDCAD could start up-trending.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3115, 1.3080 and 1.3050. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3180 and 1.3235.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A Canadian GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed off the moving averages and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside direction may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 0.9910. A bearish move may find support around 0.9840.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was rejected around the bullish channel resistance area. USDJPY is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are tight and could cross bearish, signalling that price could struggle to swing higher.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 108.30 and 108.15. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 108.70, 108.90 and 109.00.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been bullish but continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1478, 1483, 1496 and 1515.

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