TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 30, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish but continues to lack clear trend momentum. AUDUSD is ranging between 0.6810 and 0.6880. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently. The moving averages are currently bullish though, suggesting that price could attempt to break to the upside of the range.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 0.6805, 0.6785 and 0.6755.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by an advance GDP figure at 1230 UTC. The FOMC will release a statement and announce the official funds rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive and move sideways. EURGBP is moving within a horizontal channel at 0.8580-0.8685. The moving averages are crossing frequently and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.8790.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD found resistance around the bearish channel resistance area. Price is now attempting a move above the channel resistance and price action has formed a double-bottom reversal pattern, signalling that the downtrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways, suggesting market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the bearish channel support and resistance areas and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.0995, 1.1055, 1.1075, 1.1105, 1.1120, 1.1155 and 1.1170.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by an advance GDP figure at 1230 UTC. The FOMC will release a statement and announce the official funds rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD has become indecisive (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Price is ranging between 1.2805 and 1.2940.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.3000. A break to the downside may find support around 1.2690 and 1.2545.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by an advance GDP figure at 1230 UTC. The FOMC will release a statement and announce the official funds rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the longer-term moving average. The NZDUSD has become indecisive and is moving within a tight range at 0.6335-0.6370. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are starting to tighten and move sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6385, 0.6420 and 0.6430. A break to the downside could find support around the horizontal levels at 0.6310 and 0.6280.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by an advance GDP figure at 1230 UTC. The FOMC will release a statement and announce the official funds rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bullish. The USDCAD has closed above the recent bearish channel, suggesting that the downtrend may be over. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, signalling indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous resistance area of the bearish channel (as support) and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.3050, 1.3080, 1.3115, 1.3180 and 1.3235.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by an advance GDP figure at 1230 UTC. The BOC will release a statement and announce the official interest rate at 1400 UTC. The BOC will then hold a press conference at 1515 UTC. The FOMC will release a statement and announce the official funds rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCHF found support around the longer-term moving average. Price has since been bearish and has swung below the moving averages. The USDCHF is also below the recent trend support area, signalling that the uptrend could be over. The moving averages are becoming bearish and price action has formed lower swing highs and lows, suggesting that USDCHF could start down-trending.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area, around the previous trend support (as resistance) and around the horizontal levels at 0.9950 and 0.9965. A bearish move could stall or reverse around 0.9910.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by an advance GDP figure at 1230 UTC. The FOMC will release a statement and announce the official funds rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY has been finding support around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending and has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 108.70 and 108.30. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 108.90 and 109.00.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by an advance GDP figure at 1230 UTC. The FOMC will release a statement and announce the official funds rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal support at 1483 and is now struggling to swing higher. GOLD was up-trending but is now looking indecisive again.

Trading opportunities may exist around the previous trend support area (as resistance), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1478, 1483, 1496 and 1515.

 

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