TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 29, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around 0.6815. Price has since been bullish. AUDUSD is above the recent bearish channel and the moving averages, signalling that the downtrend is over. The moving averages confirm the lack of downside momentum – they are about to cross bullish. Price is looking a little indecisive, the AUDUSD may start ranging.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support) and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6785, 0.6805, 0.6815, 0.6830, 0.6855 and 0.6880.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC. Australian CPI figures will be released at 0030.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and range. Price is ranging between the recent lows and horizontal support at 0.8580 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8685. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURGBP closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could stall or reverse around 0.8790.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the horizontal level at 1.1105 and the longer-term moving average. The EURUSD is down-trending and has formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1105, 1.1120 and 1.1155. A bearish move may find support around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1075 and 1.1055.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is currently moving sideways and is starting to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm the potential indecision – they are also moving sideways and are tight. Price could continue to downtrend within the bearish channel but could start ranging between 1.2805 and 1.2940.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2545, 1.2690, 1.2805, 1.2940 and 1.3000.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, NZDUSD reversed around 0.6335. Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6385, 0.6425 and 0.6430. A bearish move may find support around 0.6335 and 0.6310.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDCAD has been bearish and has moved lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady and price action has formed a bearish channel, all signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3055, 1.3080, 1.3115 and 1.3180. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average. USDCHF is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside direction may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal level at 0.9910. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.9950, 0.9965 and 0.9995.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish. The USDJPY is above the recent consolidation area and price action has formed a bullish channel, suggesting that price could start up-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they are bullish and steady.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 108.90, 108.70, 108.30 and 108.15. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD is reversing off the trend support area. Price is currently in a retrace phase of a potential uptrend. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways, signalling that an attempt to move higher may fail.

Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1483 and 1478. A bullish move may become bearish around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1496 and 1516.

 

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