TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 24, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD continues to be in a retrace phase of an uptrend. The moving averages have crossed bearish, suggesting that price may struggle to swing higher.

Opportunities to go long could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.6805 and 0.6770. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent swing high at 0.6880.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price is ranging between 0.8580 and 0.8695.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.8790.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

French and German PMI figures will be announced at 0715 and 0730 UTC today. The ECB will release a rate statement and announce the official rate at 1145 UTC. This is followed by a ECB press conference at 1230 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the 38.2% Fib level and has since been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average. EURUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages have crossed bearish, suggesting that price may fail to swing higher.

Long opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend support area and around the previous resistance at 1.1055. An attempt to swing higher may stall or reverse around the longer-term moving average and around the recent highs at 1.1170.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

French and German PMI figures will be announced at 0715 and 0730 UTC today. The ECB will release a rate statement and announce the official rate at 1145 UTC. This is followed by a ECB press conference at 1230 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price was up-trending but is now moving sideways. The GBPUSD has become indecisive and is ranging between 1.2835 and 1.3000. The moving averages are tight and also moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1.2690.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has been bullish and has found resistance around the recent swing high. Price is now moving sideways and is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and moving sideways. NZDUSD is ranging between 0.6385 and 0.6430.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the previous resistance levels at 0.6345 and 0.6335.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Just like other USD pairs, USDCAD has becoming indecisive and is ranging (1.3070-1.3115). The moving averages are tightening and beginning to move sideways – confirming the indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could be rejected or reverse around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 1.3180. If USDCAD breaks to the downside, price may start down-trending again.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the previous horizontal support at 0.9910. The USDCHF is in a retrace phase after a recent bearish swing. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are steady, signalling that price may struggle to swing lower.

Opportunities to go short could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.9910, 0.9925 and 0.9950. A bearish move may find support around the moving averages.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been finding resistance around the bearish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways though, signalling market indecision.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 108.70 and 108.90. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 108.35, 108.30 and 108.15.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. GOLD continues to move within the horizontal channel at 1478-1497.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

 

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