TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 23, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed below the range support area and has since been bearish. As also suggested, price found support around the previous diagonal resistance area. AUDUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are starting to move sideways and tighten, suggesting that upside momentum is weakening – price could struggle to swing higher.

Buying opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.6805 and 0.6770. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent swing high at 0.6780.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the range support area again (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). EURGBP continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.8580 and the horizontal level at 0.8695.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.8790 and 0.8850.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD reversed off the longer-term moving average. Price has since been bearish though and has moved below the moving average. EURUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tightening and price is below the moving averages, signalling that the EURUSD could struggle to swing higher.

Long opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1055. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent swing high at 1.1170.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD found support around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but has since been bearish. Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The GBPUSD is below the moving averages and the moving averages are tightening, signalling potential indecision.

Opportunities to go long could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.2780, 1.2690 and 1.2545. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance at 1.3000.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Just like other USD pairs, the NZDUSD is currently in a retrace move of an uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that price could attempt to swing higher.

Buying opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.6345 and 0.6335. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 0.6430.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the 23.6% Fib level. The USDCAD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous swing low at 1.3180. A bearish move may find support around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal support at 1.3080.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been finding resistance around the 38.2% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is currently retracing some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – suggesting that downside momentum is weak.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.9840, 0.9910, 0.9925 and 0.9950.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY has been bearish. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish, all suggesting that the USDJPY may start down-trending.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 108.70 and 108.90. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 108.15 and 107.40.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be indecisive and move within the horizontal channel at 1478-1496. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if GOLD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1516. A break to the downside could find support around 1461.

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