TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 22, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The AUDUSD is up-trending but is currently moving sideways between 0.6860 and 0.6880. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance (as support) and around the previous swing high at 0.6805. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the current range and if the AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has been finding support around the range support area. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight. The EURGBP has formed a horizontal channel at 0.8580-0.8695.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.8790 and 0.8850.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

A major Brexit vote will take place today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price found support around the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). EURUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that price may attempt to swing higher.

Long opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1055. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent highs at 1.1170.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to move higher and be bullish. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction could continue.

If GBPUSD retraces, buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.2780, 1.2690 and 1.2540.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A major Brexit vote will take place today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, NZDUSD has been bullish and has swung higher. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the NZDUSD may attempt to swing higher.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.6345, 0.6335 and 0.6310. A bullish move may find resistance around the recent highs at 0.6430.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDCAD continues to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous swing low at 1.3180. The USDCAD could continue to find support around 1.3080.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

Canadian retail sales is scheduled for 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Canadian business outlook survey figure at 1430 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downside pressure may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.9910, 0.9925 and 0.9950. An attempt to swing lower may stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 0.9840.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was bullish and found resistance around the moving averages. USDJPY is now looking indecisive and is ranging between 108.35 and 108.90. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around the horizontal levels at 108.15 and 107.40.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD found resistance around the horizontal channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and move within a horizontal channel at 1478-1497. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if GOLD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1516. A break to the downside may find support around 1461.

 

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