TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 15, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish. The AUDUSD continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6755 and 0.6710. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.6805 and the channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price reversed around 0.8805 and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is down-trending and is currently attempting to swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8790, 0.8805 and 0.8850. Price may find support around the recent swing low at 0.8695.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been bullish and is attempting to swing higher. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1030, 1.1020, 1.1005 and 1.0995. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 1.1055 and around the bullish channel resistance area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and the 38.2% Fib level and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2545, 1.2500 and 1.2400. Price may find stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.2690.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 0830 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.6280. NZDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6255, 0.6270, 0.6280, 0.6335 and 0.6345.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A New Zealand CPI figure will be released at 2145 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been finding resistance around the 38.2% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is forming a potential downtrend and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that price may attempt to swing lower.

Shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.3230, 1.3275 and 1.3290. A bearish move may find support around the horizontal support levels at 1.3210 and 1.3180.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF reversed around the longer-term moving average and has been bullish. Price continues to look choppy and indecisive but recent price action has been bullish. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they are bullish and steady.

Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9965, 0.9950 and 0.9925. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9990, 1.0015 and 1.0025.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 108.15, 107.75, 107.55 and 107.40. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 108.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be below the moving averages and recent consolidation area, suggesting that GOLD could start down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling the potential downside.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1489, 1478 and 1462.

 

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