TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 14, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, AUDUSD was bullish and then reversed around the bullish channel resistance area. Price is up-trending and is moving withing a large bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6775 and 0.6710. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.6805 and around the channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

Australian monetary policy meeting minutes will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP has been bearish and has formed a swing lower (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is now in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening and price is below a number of key support levels, all signalling that the EURGBP could start down-trending.

Opportunities to go short may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the bearish moving averages and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.8805, 0.8850 and 0.8905. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent lows at 0.8695.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has swung higher and has been bullish. The EURUSD is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1005, 1.1000 and 1.0965. A bullish move may find resistance around 1.1030 and 1.1055 and around the channel resistance area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is now in a retrace phase. Price is above a number of key resistance levels and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that GBPUSD could start up-trending.

Buying opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2500, 1.2415 and 1.2400. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent swing high at 1.2690.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has reversed off the highs at 0.6345. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6205, 0.6255, 0.6270, 0.6280, 0.6335 and 0.6345.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDCAD was rejected around 1.3290 and has since been bearish (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is below a number of key support levels and has formed a lower swing low, all signalling that USDCAD could start down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening – confirming the potential downtrend.

Shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3210, 1.3230, 1.3275 and 1.3295. A bearish move could find support around the recent swing low at 1.3180.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has found support around the longer-term moving average. The USDCHF continues to be choppy and indecisive. Recent price action has been bullish though and the moving averages are bullish, signalling that the USDCHF may move higher.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9965, 0.9925, 0.9910 and 0.9900. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9990, 1.0015 and 1.0025.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the upside momentum could continue.

If the retrace move continues, long opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 108.15, 107.80, 107.55 and 107.40. A bullish move could find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 108.40 and 108.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has swung below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages have crossed bearish, suggesting that price may start down-trending.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1489 and 1515.

 

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