TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 11, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the range resistance area. The AUDUSD has since been bullish and has moved above the resistance area. Price is above the recent consolidation and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that AUDUSD could start up-trending. Price action has formed a potential bullish channel.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6775 and 0.6710. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6800 and 0.6805.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. EURGBP has swung below a number of key support areas and the moving averages are crossing bearish, suggesting that price may start down-trending.

Selling opportunities could exist around the previous trend support area (as resistance), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8850, 0.8905 and 0.8930.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD closed above the horizontal channel resistance and has since been bullish. Price is still above the recent consolidation around the moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1000, 1.0965 and 1.0950. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.1030 and the channel resistance area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD has been bullish. Price is forming a higher swing high and the moving averages have crossed bullish, suggesting that the GBPUSD may start up-trending.

If price starts retracing, opportunities to go long could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2415, 1.2400 and 1.2330. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2500 and 1.2570.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the horizontal level at 0.6335. The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Price is ranging between the recent swing low at 0.6280 and the horizontal resistance at 0.6335.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the NZDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the recent highs at 0.6345. A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6270 and 0.6255.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price is below the recent consolidation area, signalling that USDCAD may move lower. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bearish.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3290 and 1.3345. A bearish move may find support around 1.3275, 1.3230 and 1.3210.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

Canadian employment and unemployment data will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF reversed around the range support area. As also suggested, price then closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. The USDCHF is above the recent range and the moving averages have crossed bullish, signalling that price could start up-trending.

Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9965, 0.9925, 0.9910 and 0.9900. A strong bullish move could find resistance around 1.0015 and 1.0025.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDJPY has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 107.80, 107.55 and 107.40. The USDJPY may find resistance around the horizontal resistance areas at 108.15 and 108.40.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing off the support and resistance areas of the range. GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between 1489 and 1516.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the recent highs at 1534. A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the recent lows at 1461.

 

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