TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 09, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. The AUDUSD is ranging between 0.6670 and 0.6775.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6800, 0.6810 and 0.6830.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

US crude oil inventories is at 1430 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1500 UTC. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher. EURGBP is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8930 and 0.8905. Price may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.8995.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

EURUSD has moved below the recent horizontal channel but continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.0880, 1.0905, 1.0945, 1.0965, 1.1000 and 1.1025.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

US crude oil inventories is at 1430 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1500 UTC. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GBPUSD has been finding support around 1.2205. Price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lows – the GBPUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2275, 1.2325 and 1.2400. Price may continue to find support and even reverse around 1.2205.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

US crude oil inventories is at 1430 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1500 UTC. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has reversed around 0.6330 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.6285-0.6330.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if NZDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6345 and 0.6360. A break to the downside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.6270, 0.6255 and 0.6205.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

US crude oil inventories is at 1430 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1500 UTC. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1.3340. Just like other USD pairs, the USDCAD has become indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3280, 1.3285, 1.3290, 1.3300 and 1.3340.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

US crude oil inventories is at 1430 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1500 UTC. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9850, 0.9900, 0.9910, 0.9925, 0.9965, 0.9975, 1.0015 and 1.0025.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

US crude oil inventories is at 1430 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1500 UTC. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDJPY reversed around the 50.0% Fib level and is struggling to swing lower. Price has become indecisive.

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the horizontal levels at 106.65, 106.85, 107.00, 107.10, 107.40, 107.55 and 107.80.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

US crude oil inventories is at 1430 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1500 UTC. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. GOLD is ranging between the recent swing low at 1489 and the horizontal resistance at 1514.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade).

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