TriumphFX Forex Analysis – Daily Charts – October, November & December 2019


 

AUDUSD – Daily Chart

 

As suggested in our last daily chart Forex analysis, price reversed around the longer-term moving average and has swung lower. The AUDUSD is clearly down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Recent price action has been finding support around 0.6700 though, suggesting that price may attempt a bullish move higher.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6850, 0.6880 and 0.7070. A bearish move may reverse around the channel support area. Buying opportunities could exist around the current support at 0.6700, in anticipation of a bullish move higher.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

 

EURGBP – Daily Chart

 

Price has found support around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in our last daily chart analysis). EURGBP continues to lack trend direction and is moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are are moving sideways and have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8495, 0.9085 and 0.9325.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

 

EURUSD – Daily Chart 

 

As suggested in our last daily chart analysis, the EURUSD closed below the horizontal channel and has since been bearish. Price is down-trending and has formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. EURUSD is currently finding support around the channel support area, suggesting that a bullish retrace move may be due.

If price starts retracing, shorting opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1130 and 1.1400. EURUSD may continue to push lower and find support around the channel support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

 

GBPUSD – Daily Chart

 

GBPUSD closed below the recent range support area and has since formed a swing lower (as suggested in our last daily chart analysis). Price is now looking indecisive again and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages are bearish and widening though, signalling a potential bearish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2020, 1.2490, 1.2690 and 1.2795.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

 

NZDUSD – Daily Chart

 

Price has been bearish. The NZDUSD has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs, suggesting that price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling downside momentum.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6435 and 0.6490.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

 

USDCAD – Daily Chart 

 

As suggested in our last daily chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around 1.3330. The USDCAD is moving within a large bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside direction could continue. Price is currently in a retrace move and is in a tight range at 1.3145 to 1.3340.

Selling opportunities may exist around the range resistance area, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3530 and 1.3640. An attempt to swing lower could stall or reverse around the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3145, 1.3090 and 1.3025.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

 

USDCHF – Daily Chart

 

USDCHF continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9575, 0.9690, 0.9940, 1.0110 and 1.0200.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

 

USDJPY – Daily Chart

 

As suggested in our last daily chart analysis, the USDJPY has swung lower and continues to downtrend. Price action has formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. USDJPY could be currently forming an inverted head and shoulder pattern though, suggesting that price could attempt a bullish move higher.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 108.90 and 109.90. An attempt to move lower could be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 107.15 and 104.85.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

 

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