TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 01, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed below the range support area and has since been bearish. The AUDUSD is down-trending and has formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6745, 0.6775 and 0.6800. A bearish move could find support around the channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

The Governor of the RBA will speak at 0920 UTC today. A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.8850 and the trend support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). EURGBP is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.8850, 0.8805 and 0.8790. A bullish move may find resistance around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8890 and 0.8905.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has been finding support around the bearish channel support area. Price continues to be bearish and move lower. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0915, 1.0950, 1.0970 and 1.0995. The EURUSD could reverse off the bearish channel support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD continues to be bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending within a bearish channel but is currently ranging between 1.2280-1.2330. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and the bearish channel resistance area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been rejected around the shorter-term moving average and has since been bearish. NZDUSD is down-trending and has formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.6255 and 0.6270.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are moving sideways. The USDCAD has formed a horizontal channel at 1.3230-1.3280 and also a bearish channel.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of either channel. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent highs at 1.3305. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal level at 1.3210.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A Canadian GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been bullish and has swung higher. Price has moved above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all signalling that the USDCHF could start up-trending. Price action has formed a bullish channel.

Long opportunities may exist around the channel support area, around the bullish moving averages and around the previous resistance levels at 0.9980, 0.9960 and 0.9945. Price could find resistance around the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY has been bullish. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the USDJPY may start up-trending.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 108.15, 107.80 and 107.45. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and the horizontal levels at 108.25 and 108.45.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish. GOLD has swung below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish, all suggesting that price could start down-trending.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1486 and 1490.

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