TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 30, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been moving off the range support and resistance areas. Price continues to downtrend but is currently ranging between 0.6745 and 0.6775. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the potential bearish channel support area. A break to the upside may find resistance around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6800, 0.6810 and 0.6830.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

Australian building approvals is scheduled for 0130 UTC. The RBA will announce the official bank rate and release a rate statement at 0430 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has been bullish and has swung higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the diagonal support areas and around the horizontal levels at 0.8890, 0.8850 and 0.8805. A bullish move could reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8900, 0.8975 and 0.8995.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

A UK current account figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around 1.0940. EURUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady and price action has formed a bearish channel, all signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0970, 1.0995 and 1.1025.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed off the bearish channel support area and horizontal levels at 1.2280 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is down-trending and is moving within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2380 and 1.2395. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.2280 and 1.2260.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A UK current account figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD is currently finding support around 0.6255. Price continues to be indecisive but recent price action has formed a bearish channel, suggesting that the NZDUSD may attempt a bearish move.

Selling opportunities could exist around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6270, 0.6325, 0.6345 and 0.6360. Price may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.6255 and the channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A business confidence figure for New Zealand will be released at 2100 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDCAD was finding support around 1.3235 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis) but has since moved below the support area. Price continues to be choppy and indecisive but the USDCAD has formed a bearish channel and is moving below a key support area, signalling that price could start down-trending.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3235 and 1.3280. A bearish move could find support around the channel support area and around the horizontal level at 1.3210.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9850, 0.9890, 0.9900, 0.9945, 0.9960 and 0.9980.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price was bullish and formed a swing higher. The USDJPY is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 107.00, 107.45, 108.15, 108.25 and 108.45.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been finding support around 1490 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price has moved below the recent bullish channel and is looking indecisive.

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1486, 1490, 1509 and 1516.

 

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