TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 25, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.6810. The AUDUSD is forming a horizontal channel at 0.6760-0.6810, signalling market indecision. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6830, 0.6850 and 0.6870.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed around 0.8850 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). EURGBP is now moving sideways and is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and also moving sideways. Price is ranging between 0.8790 and 0.8850.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal levels at 0.8890, 0.8900 and 0.8975.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD reversed around the longer-term moving average and horizontal level at 1.1025. Price continues to be choppy and indecisive but has also formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the general downward direction could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around both moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1025 and 1.1075. A bearish move could become bullish around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0995, 1.0970 and 1.0945.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the potential bullish channel and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2260, 1.2290, 1.2380, 1.2395 and 1.2570.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and is clearly above the moving averages, suggesting that the recent downtrend could be over. The moving averages confirm the lack of selling momentum – they have crossed bullish and are widening.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6255, 0.6320, 0.6345 and 0.6360.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing off the moving averages and also the horizontal support at 1.3235. Just like other USD pairs, the USDCAD has become indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price is ranging between 1.3235 and 1.3305.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal levels at 1.3210, 1.3190 and 1.3140.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy and economic outlook.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are bearish and steady though, signalling that price could move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9800, 0.9855, 0.9890 and 0.9940.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.  The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has been bearish and has formed a swing lower. Price is down-trending and has formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 107.45, 107.75 and 108.25. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 107.00 and 106.70.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and previous horizontal resistance at 1516 and has since swung higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1516 and 1509. A strong bullish move could find resistance around 1555.

 

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