TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 27, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, AUDUSD has reversed off the diagonal resistance area. Price has become indecisive again. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal resistance area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6695, 0.6740, 0.6755, 0.6785, 0.6800 and 0.6815.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average and the trend resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The bearish moving averages are tightening though, suggesting that the EURGBP could struggle to swing lower.

Selling opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9100, 0.9115 and 0.9180. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 0.9040.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average and the 61.8% Fib level. The EURUSD continues to be above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are widening, all signalling that price may attempt to swing higher and uptrend.

Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the 61.8% Fib level. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.1110, 1.1155 and 1.1165. A break to the downside may find support around 1.1070 and 1.1055.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, suggesting market indecision.

Long opportunities may exist around the channel support area, around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.2200 and 1.2175. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2255 and 1.2285.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has been finding resistance around the bearish channel resistance area. Price is down-trending within a bearish channel but is now also moving within a horizontal channel at 0.6350-0.6405. The moving averages are still bearish, signalling downside direction.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6405, 0.6425, 0.6450 and 0.6465. A bearish move may find support around 0.6350 and the bearish channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD closed below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages have crossed bearish, all signalling that the USDCAD could start down-trending.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.3255 and 1.3280. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around 1.3215 and 1.3195.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy and economic outlook.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the moving averages. The moving averages are bearish and widening and price action is forming a large head and shoulder pattern, all signalling that USDCHF may move lower.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9815 and 0.9875. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.9775, 0.7220 and 0.9705.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

Price has reversed around the longer-term moving average and the horizontal level at 106.20 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action is forming lower swing lows and lower swing highs and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the USDJPY could start down-trending.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 105.75 and 106.20. A bearish move could find support around 105.10 and 104.75.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been finding support around the previous resistance at 1526. Price is above the recent consolidation area and has formed a bullish channel, all signalling that GOLD may start up-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1526 and 1508. A bullish move may find resistance around 1547 and the channel resistance area.

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