TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 22, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be indecisive and range. The moving averages continue to cross and move sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the diagonal resistance area. As also suggested, price has struggled to swing lower and is attempting a move above the moving averages and the diagonal resistance area. EURGBP is ranging between 0.9100 and 0.9180. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the identified diagonal support area and the previous diagonal resistance area (as support).

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

European services and manufacturing PMI figures will be announced at 0715 and 0730 UTC.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The EURUSD has been reversing off the channel support and resistance areas (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and move within the horizontal channel at 1.1070-1.1110. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if EURUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1160 and 1.1165. A break to the downside could find support around 1.1030.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

European services and manufacturing PMI figures will be announced at 0715 and 0730 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD continues to be choppy and indecisive. Price is ranging between 1.2075 and 1.2175. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.2210. A break to the downside may find support around 1.2045 and 1.2020.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The NZDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6395, 0.6425, 0.6450 and 0.6465.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

A New Zealand retail sales figure will be released at 2245 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the horizontal support at 1.3255 and the diagonal support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD was up-trending but is now indecisive and moving sideways. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.3255-1.3340. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are crossing frequently and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the USDCAD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the diagonal support area. A break to the downside may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.3215, 1.3195 and 1.3185.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy and economic outlook.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCHF closed above the channel resistance area and has since been bullish. Price has moved above the recent channel and has formed a bullish channel, all signalling that USDCHF could start up-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential trend – they are bullish.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9815 and 0.9770. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY has been finding resistance around the range resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and range between 105.15 and 106.75. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart