TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 21, 2019
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and range between 0.6740 and 0.6815. The moving averages are tight and crossing frequently – confirming the indecision.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the recent lows at 0.6695.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.
US FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURGBP reversed around the diagonal resistance area. Price has been down-trending but has failed to swing higher, signalling that the downtrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening. The EURGBP could start ranging between the horizontal support at 0.9100 and the recent horizontal resistance at 0.9180.
Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance area, around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade).
Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price is ranging between 1.1070 and 1.1110 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and has formed a horizontal channel. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the EURUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1160 and 1.1165. A break to the downside may be rejected or reverse around the recent lows at 1.1030.
The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.
US FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found resistance around 1.2175. The GBPUSD has become choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price action is forming a horizontal channel at 1.2075-1.2175.
Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the GBPUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1.2045 and 1.2020. A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.2210.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.
US FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD reversed around the trend resistance area and is now finding support around 0.6395 (as all suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.
Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6425, 0.6450, 0.6465 and 0.6495. NZDUSD may continue to find support around 0.6395.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.
US FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD found resistance around 1.3340. Price is up-trending but is also looking choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.
Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3280, 1.3255, 1.3215 and 1.3195. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.3340.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy and economic outlook.
A Canadian CPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. US FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price has become indecisive and is moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are also moving sideways. The USDCHF has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9770-0.9815.
Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance area of the channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade).
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.
US FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the range resistance area. The USDJPY continues to be indecisive and range between 105.10-106.75. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.
US FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD continues to be indecisive and move within a large horizontal channel at 1486-1532. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.
Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade).
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