Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 19-23.08.2019


EUR/USD

The Euro corrected up after the test of the support level 1.1068. Nevertheless, the price continues trading near this mark, and given the recent sharp drop on the large volume, we can consider a scenario of its breakdown, which will allow us to open short positions.

The breakdown movement must be confident, sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more accurate and reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed just above the breakdown volume bar. A potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

GBP/USD

The Pound goes on trading within the local range between 2 strong volume levels. They are the support 1.2052 and the resistance 1.2182. It should also be noted that the large volume accumulation is concentrated inside this consolidation.

Given all these factors, we can open new positions only after a confident and rapid exit of the price from the local consolidation. Moreover, the movement should be supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market.

While the price is trading within the local range, it is better to stay out of the market.

USD/JPY

The Yen is still within the local range between 2 strong levels. The first one is the support 105.12, the second is the resistance 107.60. Thus, we can consider new trading scenarios only after a sharp exit of the price from the consolidation. The breakout movement must be confident and on the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market.

As long as the price is within the range, it is better to stay out of the market.

USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar tested the resistance level 1.3333, and then sharply corrected down. Now the price is trading within the local range between this mark and the support level 1.3119. Moreover, the breakdown movement should be rapid and on the large volume, which will be a more accurate signal for entering the market.

While the price is trading within the consolidation, it is better to stay out of the market.

AUD/USD

The situation with the Australian dollar has not changed: the price continues trading within the local range between 2 strong levels. They are the support 0.6747 and the resistance 0.6817. Given these factors, we can only open new positions after a confident and sharp exit of the pair from the range. The movement should be supported by the large volume, which will insure us against a false breakdown and will be a stronger signal for entering the market.

While the pair is inside the consolidation, it is better to stay out of the market.

XAU/USD

Gold has corrected down and is currently trading in the middle of the local range between 2 strong volume levels. They are the support 1493.20 and the resistance 1526.90.

Thus, we can consider new trading scenarios only after the sharp exit of the price from the range. Moreover, the breakdown movement should be supported by the large volume, which will be a more accurate signal for entering the market.

While the price is trading within the local range, it is better to stay out of the market.

The sentiment: this technical indicator fully confirms our trading scenario of opening short positions with the Euro (trading against the “crowd”). As with remaining instruments, we can open new positions only after a confident exit of prices from local consolidations.

The best deal: EUR/USD

While out of the market: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, XAU/USD

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