TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 8, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to downtrend and be bearish. The recent retrace move has been strong though and has moved above the trend resistance area and both moving averages, suggesting that the downtrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm this – they are starting to tighten and move sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 0.6695, 0.6750, 0.6795, 0.6865 and 0.6895.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was bullish and then found resistance around the recent highs at 0.9250. EURGBP has been up-trending but is now looking indecisive and ranging between 0.9170 and 0.9250. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal levels at 0.9090 and 0.9000.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD has become indecisive (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.1170 and 1.1245. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1160 and 1.1115.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways, The GBPUSD continues to range between 1.2090 and 1.2245.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.2425.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to downtrend and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the NZDUSD may attempt to swing lower.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and the horizontal levels at 0.6505 and 0.6575.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the bullish channel resistance area. The USDCAD is up-trending within a bullish channel and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3250 and 1.3185. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.3340 and around the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy and economic outlook.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has found support around the recent swing low at 0.9705 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has now formed a horizontal channel at 0.9705-0.9790 and is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the USDCHF closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.9840 and 0.9885.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.  The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDJPY found support around the range support area. Price continues to be indecisive and range between 105.60 and 106.70. The moving averages are tightening and are starting to move sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

 

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