TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 01, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The AUDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.6870 and 0.6900. An attempt to swing lower could find support around 0.6835.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today. Australian retail sales will be released at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the EURGBP may attempt to swing higher.

Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.9045 and 0.9005. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.9145 and 0.9185.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

The BOE will announce the official bank rate and release monetary policy and inflation reports at 1100 UTC today. This is followed by a BOE speech at 1130 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD closed below the range support area and has since been bearish. Price is down-trending. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are starting to widen, signalling that the downside direction could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1115 and 1.1160. EURUSD could find support around the recent lows at 1.1040.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD has been bearish and has swung lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the channel resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2125 and 1.2245. A bearish move may find support around the channel support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

The BOE will announce the official bank rate and release monetary policy and inflation reports at 1100 UTC today. A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The NZDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

If price starts retracing, selling opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. NZDUSD could find support around the recent lows at 0.6540.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bullish and has swung higher. USDCAD is up-trending again and has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are about to cross bullish – confirming the current upside momentum.

Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3190, 1.3150 and 1.3120. USDCAD may find resistance around the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy and economic outlook.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF has been bullish. Price has swung higher and has formed a bullish channel, all suggesting that the USDCHF could start up-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are becoming bullish.

If price starts retracing, opportunities to go long may exist around the channel support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9940 and 0.9885.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.  The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY moved above 108.85 and has since been bullish. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are crossing bullish, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 108.85, 108.75, 108.45 and 108.35. The USDJPY may stall or reverse around the recent highs at 109.25.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has closed below the recent horizontal channel consolidation, suggesting that GOLD could move lower. The moving averages continue to move sideways though – signalling market indecision.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal channel support area at 1412 and around the moving averages. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 1401.  A sudden bullish move could find resistance around 1432 and 1447.

 

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