TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 31, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a rate announcement and statement by the FOMC at 1800 and 1830 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP has been finding resistance around 0.9185 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the EURGBP could start up-trending.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.9145 and 0.9045. Price could continue to find resistance around 0.9185 and may start ranging between 0.9145 and 0.9185.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to be indecisive and range between 1.1115 and 1.1180. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1200 and 1.1280.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been retracing some of the recent bearish move. GBPUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.2385 and 1.2425. A bearish move could find support around the recent lows at 1.2125.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a rate announcement and statement by the FOMC at 1800 and 1830 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has found support around 0.6595. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

If the NZDUSD starts retracing, selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages. Price may continue to find support around 0.6590.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a rate announcement and statement by the FOMC at 1800 and 1830 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDCAD has been bearish. Price action has formed a double-top reversal pattern and the moving averages are crossing bearish, all suggesting that the USDCAD could start down-trending.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3150 and 1.3190. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around 1.3120 and 1.3090.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy and economic outlook.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a rate announcement and statement by the FOMC at 1800 and 1830 UTC. A Canadian GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been up-trending but is currently looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9840, 0.9870, 0.9895 and 0.9940.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a rate announcement and statement by the FOMC at 1800 and 1830 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

Just like USDCHF, the USDJPY has been up-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 107.80, 108.00, 108.25, 108.35, 108.45, 108.75 and 108.85. If price closes above 108.85, the USDJPY could attempt a bullish move higher.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a rate announcement and statement by the FOMC at 1800 and 1830 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been finding resistance around the range resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. GOLD is moving within a horizontal channel at 1412-1432.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1447. A break to the downside may find support around 1401 and 1387.

 

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