TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 30, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The AUDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 0.7000. Price could continue to find support around 0.6895.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today. An Australian CPI figure will be released at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and has swung higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP has moved above the recent swing highs and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that price may start up-trending.

If EURGBP starts retracing, buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9045 and 0.9005. Price may find resistance around the recent highs at 0.9185.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has continued to find support around the range support area. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. EURUSD is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.1115 and the recent swing high at 1.1180.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.1200.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD has been bearish and has moved lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside direction may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average. NZDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support at 0.6695. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around 0.6595.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today. A New Zealand business confidence figure will be released at 0100 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has reversed around the longer-term moving average and the previous swing high at 1.3150 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3150 and 1.3120. A bullish move may find resistance around 1.3190.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy and economic outlook.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCHF has been finding support around 0.9905. Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the USDCHF could attempt to swing higher.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9905, 0.9900 and 0.9870. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 0.9945.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDJPY has swung higher and has been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has recent reversed around 108.95 (as also suggested). USDJPY is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous resistance levels at 108.35 and 108.30. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 108.75, 108.85 and 108.95.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price is ranging between 1412 and 1432.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1401 and 1387. A break to the upside may find resistance around the recent highs at 1447.

 

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