TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 25, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has continued to be bearish and is currently finding support around 0.6965. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7000 and 0.7045. Price may stall or reverse around 0.6965 and 0.6910.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP closed below the range support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs – EURGBP is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 0.8955. An attempt to swing lower could be rejected or reverse around 0.8910.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

The ECB will announce rates and release a monetary policy statement at 1145 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1230 UTC.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. EURUSD continues to be below the recent consolidation and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that price may start down-trending.

If price starts retracing, selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous consolidation support at 1.1200.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

The ECB will announce rates and release a monetary policy statement at 1145 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1230 UTC. A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2380, 1.2425, 1.2520, 1.2555 and 1.2575.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has since been bearish. Price action has formed a head and shoulder pattern and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that NZDUSD may start down-trending.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6695, 0.6715 and 0.6735. A bearish move may find support around 0.6650 and 0.6615.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

The USDCAD found resistance around 1.3150 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has since been moving sideways and has formed a range at 1.3125-1.3150. The moving averages are bullish, signalling that the USDCAD could move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around the longer-term moving average and the previous horizontal resistance at 1.3095.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy and economic outlook.

A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to downtrend within a bearish channel and be choppy. The moving averages confirm the choppy price action – they have been crossing frequently.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9865 and 0.9900. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9840 and 0.9805.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found support around the longer-term moving average. The USDJPY continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support) and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 107.80, 108.00, 108.30, 108.35 and 108.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD continues to be indecisive and move sideways. The moving averages are also moving sideways – confirming the lack of trend momentum.

Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal support area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1401, 1416, 1429, 1434 and 1447.

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