TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 24, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around 0.7000. The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. Price action could be forming a large head and should pattern though and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the AUDUSD could move lower.

Selling opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7000 and 0.7045. A bearish move could find support around 0.6965 and 0.6910.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

There is a RBA speech scheduled at 0305 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been reversing off the horizontal levels at 0.8955 and 0.9005 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Price is ranging between 0.8955 and 0.9005.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.9015 and 0.9045.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

French and German Flash PMI figures will be released at 0715 and 0730 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been bearish and has moved lower. Price continues to be under the recent consolidation and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that EURUSD could start down-trending.

If price starts retracing, shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.1195 and 1.1200. EURUSD could find support around the recent lows at 1.1145.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

French and German Flash PMI figures will be released at 0715 and 0730 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2380, 1.2450, 1.2555 and 1.2575.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. Price action is forming a head and shoulder pattern and the moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, all signalling that the NZDUSD could start down-trending.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6700 and 0.6735. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6650 and 0.6615.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around 1.3150. The USDCAD continues to be above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that price may start up-trending.

Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages and around the previous consolidation resistance at 1.3095. Price may continue to find resistance around 1.3150.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy and economic outlook.

A Canadian retail sales figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are tight and have been crossing frequently, suggesting market indecision.

Selling opportunities may exist around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9900 and 0.9905. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the recent swing low at 0.9805 and around the channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDJPY continues to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 107.25, 107.80, 108.30, 108.35 and 108.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is a BOJ speech scheduled for 1600 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has become choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1383, 1387, 1401, 1417, 1434 and 1447.

 

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