TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 22, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price found support around the shorter-term moving average. The AUDUSD has since been bearish though. Price has been up-trending but the current retrace move has swung below key support areas and the shorter-term moving average, signalling that upside momentum is weakening.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.7000 and 0.6990. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7045 and 0.7075.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

There is a RBA speech scheduled for 2330 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been finding support around 0.8955 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP has become indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8920, 0.8955, 0.9005, 0.9015 and 0.9045.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been finding support around the horizontal channel support area. Price is indecisive and is moving within a horizontal channel at 1.1200-1.1280. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the EURUSD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.1305.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD reversed around the range resistance area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. The GBPUSD is ranging between the recent lows at 1.2380 and the horizontal resistance at 1.2575.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out).

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has found support around the shorter-term moving average. The NZDUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6735 and 0.7000. Price could find resistance around the recent swing high at 0.6785.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to reverse off the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.3020-1.3095.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the USDCAD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.3140 and 1.3145.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy and economic outlook.

A Canadian retail sales figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been finding support around the bearish channel support area and around the horizontal support at 0.9810. Price continues to be indecisive but also be slightly bearish. The USDCHF is moving within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downside momentum could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9900 and 0.9905. A bearish move could continue to find support around 0.9810 and the channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDJPY is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are moving sideways and are about to start tightening, suggesting that the downtrend may becoming to an end.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the trend resistance and around the horizontal resistance levels at 108.35 and 108.60. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 107.80.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is a BOJ speech scheduled for 1600 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the longer-term moving average. GOLD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1417 and 1401. A bullish move could find resistance around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1434 and 1447.

 

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