TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 18, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around 0.6990. The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.7045, 0.7000, 0.6990 and 0.6965. If price closes above 0.7045, the AUDUSD could attempt a bullish move higher.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9015, 0.9005 and 0.8985. Price may stall or reverse around 0.9045.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

A UK retail sales figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has reversed off the range support area. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. The EURUSD is ranging between 1.1200 and 1.1280.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price move out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could stall or reverse around 1.1305 and 1.1350.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD has been finding resistance around 1.2450 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.2450, 1.2575 and 1.2585. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent lows at 1.2380.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

A UK retail sales figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher. The NZDUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady and price action has formed a bullish channel, all signalling that the upside momentum could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around the channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6735 and 0.6700. A strong bullish move could find resistance around the channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. The USDCAD has formed a horizontal channel at 1.3020-1.3090.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.3140 and 1.3145.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy and economic outlook.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has reversed around the range resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive and range between 0.9825 and 0.9905. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could stall or reverse around 0.9945. A break to the downside could stall or reverse around 0.9805 and 0.9740.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDJPY has been bearish. Price has moved below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are becoming bearish, all signalling that the USDJPY may start down-trending. Price action has also formed a potential bearish channel.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the potential bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 107.80 and 108.35. The USDJPY may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 107.55 and the channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1383, 1387, 1401, 1403, 1417, 1428 and 1436.

 

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