TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 17, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has reversed around the recent highs at 0.7045. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6910, 0.6955, 0.6965, 0.6990 and 0.7045.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

Australian employment and unemployment figures will be released at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP closed above the horizontal channel resistance area and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending and is moving within a large bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

If price retraces, buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9005, 0.8990, 0.8970 and 0.8955. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent swing high at 0.9040 and around the bullish channel resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

A UK CPI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the range support area. The EURUSD continues to be indecisive and range between 1.1195 and 1.1280. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around 1.1305 and 1.1350.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. The GBPUSD has swung below the recent lows of 1.2450 and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that price could start down-trending.

Selling opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 12450, 1.275 and 1.2585.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

A UK CPI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has reversed around the 23.6% Fib level and the longer-term moving average. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.6660 and 0.6650. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 0.6735.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDCAD has found resistance around 1.3090 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has become indecisive. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the lack of trend momentum. The USDCAD is forming a horizontal channel at 1.3020-1.3090.

Trading opportunities may exist around the channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.3140 and 1.3145.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy and economic outlook.

A Canadian CPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and has become indecisive (just like other USD pairs). The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. The USDCHF is ranging between 0.9820 and 0.9905.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around 0.9945. A break to the downside may stall or reverse around 0.9805 and 0.9740.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

Just like the USDCHF, the USDJPY has been bullish and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is ranging between the horizontal levels at 107.80 and 108.60.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 107.55. A break to the upside could be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 108.95.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been finding support around 1403. Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1383, 1403, 1425 and 1436.

 

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