TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 11, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the horizontal support at 0.6905 and then found resistance around the longer-term moving average. Price has since been bullish and has moved above the moving averages, signalling market indecision. The moving averages confirm the potential indecision – they are starting to tight and move sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6905, 0.6910, 0.6955, 0.6965, 0.6990 and 0.7045.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average and has continued to be bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8985, 0.8980 and 0.8955. The EURGBP may continue to find resistance around 0.9005.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1000 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bullish. The EURUSD has swung above the trend resistance area and the moving averages, suggesting that the recent downtrend is now over. Price could now become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1195, 1.1230, 1.1275, 1.1305 and 1.1350.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and has moved above the trend resistance and moving average selling areas, signalling that the recent downtrend may now be over. The moving averages confirm the weakening selling momentum – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2450, 1.2495, 1.2535, 1.2560 and 1.2585.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1000 UTC today. US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Just like other USD pairs, the NZDUSD has been bullish and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6555, 0.6595, 0.6615, 0.6650, 0.6660 and 0.6720.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has reversed around the range resistance area and is now finding support around the range support area. Price continues to be indecisive and range between 1.3045 and 1.3445. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.3160 and 1.3220.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. The USDCHF has swung below the trend support area and the moving averages, suggesting that the recent uptrend is over. Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9805, 0.9840, 0.9885 and 0.9945.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bearish. The USDJPY is below the recent trend support and the moving averages, all suggesting that the uptrend is now over. Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous trend support area (as resistance), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 108.10, 108.50 and 108.55. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 107.55 and 106.80.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has reversed around the horizontal channel support area. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. GOLD is moving within a large horizontal channel at 1383-1436. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

 

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