TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 03, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the recent uptrend is over – the AUDUSD has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. Price is ranging between 0.6955 and 0.7030. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6935, 0.6905 and 0.6880.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US non-manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC. An Australian retail sales figure will be released at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has been bullish and has become indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8915, 0.8920, 0.8940, 0.8975 and 0.8985. If price closes above 0.8985, the EURGBP may attempt a bullish move higher.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing off the shorter-term moving average. The EURUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance and around the horizontal levels at 1.1305, 1.1350 and 1.1390. A bearish move could find support around 1.1280, 1.1240 and 1.1205.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US non-manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price found support around the channel support area but has continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2660 and 1.2725. A bearish move may stall or reverse around 1.2520.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US non-manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6555, 0.6600, 0.6660 and 0.6720.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US non-manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Just like other USD pairs, the USDCAD has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price is ranging between 1.3065 and 1.3145. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.3165 and 1.3220.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. A Canadian trade balance figure will be released at 1230 UTC. This is followed by US non-manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the USDCHF could attempt a bullish move higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9810 and 0.9740. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around 0.9885, 0.9915 and 0.9965.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US non-manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bearish. The USDJPY has swung below the channel support area and the moving averages, all suggesting that the recent uptrend is now over. Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 106.80, 107.10, 107.60, 107.70, 108.10, 108.20 and 108.50.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US non-manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been bullish and has swung higher. Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1383, 1401, 1422 and 1436.

 

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