TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 01, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD continued to move higher and be bullish. Price is now bearish and is retracing some of the recent bullish move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.6955, 0.6935 and 0.6905.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today. The RBA will announce rates and release a rate statement at 0430 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP swung higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price was up-trending but has recently been bearish and has moved below the trend support area and the moving averages, all signalling that the uptrend is over. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and could cross bearish. Opportunities to go short may exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal levels at 0.8940, 0.8950 and 0.8970. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.8915, 0.8880 and 0.8870.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the range resistance area. The EURUSD has since been bearish and has moved below the range support area. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1350, 1.1390 and 1.1410. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1310 and 1.1280.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. The GBPUSD is ranging between 1.2655 and 1.2725. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may be rejected or reverse around 1.2760 and 1.2780. A break to the downside may find support around 1.2520.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has continued to be bullish and move higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6675 and 0.6615. A bullish move could find resistance around 0.6720.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD has continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending within a bearish channel and is currently in a retrace phase. Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3135, 1.3165 and 1.3220. A bearish move may find support around the recent swing low at 1.3065 and around the channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish. The USDCHF has formed a short series of higher lows – price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9810 and 0.9740. A strong bullish move could find resistance around 0.9915 and 0.9955.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bullish. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all signalling that the USDJPY is up-trending. Opportunities to go long could exist around the bullish channel support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 108.20, 108.10 and 107.70. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 108.75.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been bearish. Price action has formed a lower swing high and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the selling momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1401, 1422 and 1436. GOLD could find support around 1384, 1355 and 1333.

 

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