TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 20, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the recent downtrend is now over. The AUDUSD has been bullish. The moving averages are about to cross bullish, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6880 and 0.6835. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6900, 0.6930 and 0.6965.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP reversed around 0.8930 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has swung below the recent bullish channel and the moving averages have crossed bearish – the recent uptrend is now over. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous channel support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal levels at 0.8880, 0.8900, 0.8910 and 0.8930. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.8850 and 0.8840.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

A UK retail sales figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. The BOE will release a rate statement and monetary policy summary at 1100 UTC. The Governor of the BOE will speak at 2000 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bullish and is looking indecisive again. The moving averages confirm the lack of trend momentum – they have been crossing and are currently moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1185, 1.1205, 1.1220, 1.1240, 1.1255, 1.1295 and 1.1340.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As identified in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around 1.2675 and the 61.8% Fib level. The GBPUSD has since been bullish though. Price is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2520, 1.2560, 1.2655, 1.2675, 1.2745 and 1.2760.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A UK retail sales figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. The BOE will release a rate statement and monetary policy summary at 1100 UTC. The Governor of the BOE will speak at 2000 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Recent price action has been bullish. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that the upside direction could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6535, 0.6510 and 0.6490. A bullish move could find resistance around 0.6615, 0.6650 and 0.6675.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD has been bearish. Price is attempting a move below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the USDCAD may start down-trending. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3235, 1.3250, 1.3340 and 1.3365.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish and has moved below the recent bullish channel. The USDCHF is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9865, 0.9915, 0.9955, 0.9965 and 1.0000.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the range resistance area. The USDJPY is now below the recent range/consolidation and the moving averages have crossed bearish, all signalling that price may start down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 107.85 and 108.20.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been bullish. Price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows – GOLD is up-trending. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1355, 1345 and 1333.

 

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