TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 19, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish. The AUDUSD has swung above the trend resistance area and the moving averages are tightening and starting to move sideways, all signalling that the downtrend may becoming to an end. Trading opportunities could exist around the previous trend resistance (as support), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6830, 0.6880, 0.6900, 0.6930 and 0.6965.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

The FOMC will release economic projections, announce the official rate and a rate statement at 1800 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC. The Governor of the RBA will speak at 0235 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the bullish channel resistance area and is now finding support around the channel support area. The EURGBP continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. Price is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the EURGBP could attempt to swing higher. Buying opportunities may exist around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8900 and 0.8880. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8910, 0.8930 and 0.8970.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

A UK CPI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. The President of the ECB will speak at 1400 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD has reversed around the diagonal resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs –  the EURUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1205, 1.1220, 1.1240, 1.1255 and 1.1295.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1400 UTC. The FOMC will release economic projections, announce the official rate and a rate statement at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has been finding resistance around 1.2560. Price action has formed a clear swing low and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that the GBPUSD could start down-trending. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.2560, 1.2615 and 1.2655. An attempt to swing lower could find support around 1.2520.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A UK CPI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. The FOMC will release economic projections, announce the official rate and a rate statement at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish. The NZDUSD has moved above the bearish channel resistance area and above the moving averages, suggesting that the recent downtrend is now over. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6490, 0.6500, 0.6510 and 0.6615.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

The FOMC will release economic projections, announce the official rate and a rate statement at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC. A New Zealand GDP figure will be released at 2245 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found support around 1.3365. Just like other USD pairs, the USDCAD has become indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend support area and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.3235, 1.3250, 1.3340, 1.3365, 1.3430, 1.3490 and 1.3560.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

A Canadian CPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. The FOMC will release economic projections, announce the official rate and a rate statement at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9965, 0.9955 and 0.9915. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal level at 1.0000 and the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

The FOMC will release economic projections, announce the official rate and a rate statement at 1800 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has moved off the range resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive and range between 107.85 and 108.75. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

The FOMC will release economic projections, announce the official rate and a rate statement at 1800 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has become indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1320, 1333, 1345 and 1355.

 

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