TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 18, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6880, 0.6900 and 0.6930.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is now finding resistance around the channel resistance area (as also suggested). The EURGBP continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8930, 0.8910, 0.8895 and 0.8880. Price may continue to find resistance around the channel resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

The President of the ECB will speak at 0800 UTC today. The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1400 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average. The EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1120, 1.1205, 1.1220, 1.1255, 1.1295 and 1.1340.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

The President of the ECB will speak at 0800 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. The GBPUSD is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that price may start down-trending. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2560, 1.2615 and 1.2655.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1400 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6500 and 0.6510. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.6490 and around the channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD is in an uptrend but is currently moving sideways. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3365 and 1.3345. A bullish move may find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1.3415, 1.3430 and 1.3490.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9955, 0.9915 and 0.9865. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.0000.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 108.75. The USDJPY continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between 107.85 and 108.75. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the USDJPY may stall or reverse around the previous horizontal support at 109.20.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been up-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1320, 1345 and 1355.

 

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