TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 17, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The AUDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6900, 0.6930, 0.6935 and 0.6965.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

The RBA will release monetary policy meeting minutes at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been finding resistance around 0.8910 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP has been up-trending within a bullish channel but is currently indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.8880 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8910. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURGBP closes out of the range. A break to the downside could find support around the horizontal support levels at 0.8850, 0.8840 and 0.8830. A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.8930 and the bullish channel resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1700 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the uptrend is now over. The EURUSD has been bearish but is looking indecisive. Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal resistance area, around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1120, 1.1220, 1.1255, 1.1295 and 1.1345. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that price may move lower.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1700 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2560, 1.2615, 1.2655, 1.2675, 1.2745 and 1.2760.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The NZDUSD has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6555 and 0.6615. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.6500 and the channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside direction could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3365, 1.3340 and 1.3250. A move higher could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3430, 1.3490 and 1.3535.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. Price is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all signalling that the USDCHF may start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous range resistance at 0.9955. A strong bullish move may find resistance at 1.0095.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 107.85, 107.95, 108.20, 108.60, 108.75 and 109.20.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price is finding support around the longer-term moving average. GOLD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal support level at 1320. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1345 and 1355.

 

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