TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 12, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.6965 and the shorter-term moving average. The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6900, 0.6935, 0.6965, 0.7000 and 0.7010.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. Australian employment and unemployment data will be announced at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed off the recent highs at 0.8925 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP continues to uptrend and be bullish. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8900, 0.8885, 0.8870, 0.8850, 0.8840, 0.8830 and 0.8805. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent swing high at 0.8925 and around the channel resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

The President of the ECB will speak at 0815 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD found support around the shorter-term moving average and has been bullish. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that upside momentum may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support areas and around the horizontal levels at 1.1295, 1.1255, 1.1220 and 1.1215. A bullish move may find resistance around the recent swing high at 1.1340.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

The President of the ECB will speak at 0815 UTC today. US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2560, 1.2610, 1.2655, 1.2675, 1.2745 and 1.2760.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has continued to be bearish. The NZDUSD is indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6495, 0.6560, 0.6615, 0.6650 and 0.6675.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the trend resistance area. The USDCAD has since moved above the resistance area though. Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Opportunities to go short may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3365 and 1.3430. Price action has been forming support levels and the bearish moving averages are tightening, suggesting that the USDCAD could struggle to swing lower. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the previous trend resistance area (as support), around the shorter-term moving average, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3250 and 1.3235.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF continues to range between 0.9865 and 0.9955. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.0010 and 1.0095.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified diagonal support and resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 107.85, 108.60, 108.75, 109.20, 109.60 and 109.90.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the 38.2% Fib level and has since been bullish. GOLD has been up-trending but is currently moving sideways within a horizontal channel at 1320-1345. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade).

 

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