TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 04, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bullish and has moved higher. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6935 and 0.6930.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

The Governor of the RBA will speak at 0930 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1355 UTC. An Australian GDP figure will be released at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP reversed around the longer-term moving average and around the trend support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8870, 0.8840, 0.8830, 0.8805 and 0.8790.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bullish. The EURUSD has swung above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, all suggesting that price could start up-trending. Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1220, 1.1215, 1.1180 and 1.1145.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1355 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the trend resistance area and then reversed around the horizontal support at 1.2610. The GBPUSD has moved above the recent trend resistance area and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the previous trend resistance area (as support), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2560, 1.2610, 1.2695, 1.2745 and 1.2785.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1355 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD has been bullish. Price has swung above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish, all suggesting that the NZDUSD could start up-trending. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.6580 and 0.6560. A bullish move could be stall or reverse around the recent highs and psychological level at 0.6600.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1355 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3370, 1.3405, 1.3430, 1.3490, 1.3495, 1.3505 and 1.3535.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1355 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the 23.6% Fib level and has continued to be bearish and move lower. The USDCHF is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside direction could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 1.0010.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1355 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages and around the previous horizontal support levels at 109.20 and 109.25.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1355 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has continued to be bullish and move higher. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1302 and 1299. GOLD could continue to find resistance around 1327.

 

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