TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 24, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.6865. The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6865, 0.6890, 0.6910, 0.6935 and 0.6965.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is now finding resistance around 0.8835 (as also suggested). Price is clearly up-trending but is currently moving within a horizontal channel at 0.8790-0.8835. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the EURGBP closes out of the channel (break-out trade). Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8740 and 0.8685.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

A UK retail sales figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD has been bullish. Price continues to lack clear trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 1.1130, 1.1145, 1.1180, 1.1215, 1.1220, 1.1245 and 1.1260.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is clearly down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside direction could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2690 and 1.2785. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 1.2610.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A UK retail sales figure will be released at 0830 UTC today. A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish. The NZDUSD is above the moving averages and the recent trend resistance area, all suggesting that the downtrend may now be over. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6485, 0.6515, 0.6545, 0.6550, 0.6565 and 0.6570.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3370, 1.3385, 1.3405, 1.3415, 1.3485, 1.3495 and 1.3505.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has been bearish. Price has moved below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the USDCHF may start down-trending. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0050, 1.0055, 1.0070, 1.0080, 1.0095 and 1.0120.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY has been bearish. Price has moved below the recent trend support area and below a number of key swing lows – the recent uptrend is over. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend support (as resistance) and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 109.10, 109.25, 109.55, 109.70, 109.90, 110.05, 110.20, 110.30 and 110.65.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1269, 1271, 1278, 1280, 1282, 1288.50, 1290, 1294 and 1299.

 

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