TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 21, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the horizontal resistance at 0.6935. The AUDUSD is down-trending but the moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – signalling market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6865, 0.6910, 0.6935 and 0.6965. If price closes below 0.6865, the current downtrend may continue.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP continues to uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8750 and 0.8685. A bullish move could find resistance around 0.8780.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

UK inflation report hearings are scheduled for 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has reversed off the horizontal level at 1.1175 and has since been bearish. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1170, 1.1175 and 1.1180. The EURUSD may continue to find support around 1.1150.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD continues to be bearish and downtrend (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2710 and 1.2755.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

UK inflation report hearings are scheduled for 0830 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the previous horizontal support at 0.6545 and is now forming a swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6515, 0.6545, 0.6565 and 0.6570.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A New Zealand retail sales figure will be released at 2245 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been finding support around the bullish channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD continues to move within the bullish but also continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and around the horizontal levels at 1.3375, 1.3385, 1.3405, 1.3415, 1.3485 and 1.3485.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways and tightening – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0050, 1.0055, 1.0080, 1.0095, 1.0120, 1.0130 and 1.0155.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY reversed around the shorter-term moving average. Price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows – the USDJPY is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 110.05, 109.70, 109.55 and 109.25. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 110.30, 110.90 and 111.10.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been finding resistance around 1278 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1269, 1275, 1278, 1280, 1282, 1286, 1288.50 and 1290.

 

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